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                                                                                                                                                                          亚洲真人官网:上海建工:一季报超预期强化自上而下逻辑 买入评级

                                                                                                                                                                              核心观点一季度订单点评事件:2019年5月8日,卞家骏先生、林锦胜先生等10名公司董事、高级管理人员以自有资金通过集中竞价方式合计增持了119.94万股,增持股份占公司总股本的0.013%。

                                                                                                                                                                          高管增持彰显发展信心:公司10位董事、高管合计增持了119.94万股,增持股份占公司总股本的0.013%,增持价格区间为3.80~3.83元/股,增持完成后,10位董事、高管共持有公司股份255.47万股,占公司总股本0.0287%,此次增持彰显公司高层对公司未来的发展信心。

                                                                                                                                                                          一季度业绩超预期:公司一季度实现营收470.99亿,同比增加51.57%,实现归母净利润13.17亿,同比增加147.22%,收入及归母净利润增速皆超市场预期。公司一季度新签合同额920.07亿,同比增长30.82%,为2017年以来一季度最好水平。整体来看,建筑施工相关业务全面提升,主要受益于基建周期与一二线地产周期向上以及公司在长三角区域的龙头地位。

                                                                                                                                                                          投资逻辑一季度业绩超预期叠加股东增持强化公司自上而下投资逻辑:

                                                                                                                                                                          宏观层面:新一轮稳增长周期开启,货币、财政宽松;基建投资2019年处于上升周期;一二线地产周期向上,三、四线房地产建安投资修复。

                                                                                                                                                                          行业层面;基建新签订单增速向上,一二线房建新签订单受益周期向上;行业集中度继续提升,龙头企业优势不断强化;长三角一体化推进加速,公司作为长三角龙头,显著受益。

                                                                                                                                                                          公司层面:

                                                                                                                                                                          1、订单储备充足,进入结转高峰。最近三年订单复合增速21.7%,2019年新签订单目标为3305亿,YOY+8.8%。2018年收入显著改善,增速20.03%,订单结转逐渐进入高峰,保障2019年收入增长,2019年收入目标为1860亿,YOY+9.1%,由于地产业务经过2018年集中结转,2019收入端可能大幅下滑,在此基础上实现9.1%的收入增速,建筑施工业务有望显著提速。

                                                                                                                                                                          2、利润端弹性充足:毛利率提升、财务费用下降、资产减值规模回落、金融资产增厚等多重因素叠加,利润弹性充足;3、释放业绩动力充足。从公司自身动力而言,2020年3月员工持股解禁,释放业绩动力强劲。

                                                                                                                                                                          4、主题催化:长三角一体化加速推进,带来增量订单的同时,有望持续产生主题催化。

                                                                                                                                                                          预计公司2019-2020年新签订单增速分别为11.54%、7.44%,营业收入增速分别为9.59%、7.34%,不考虑金融资产影响的归母净利润增速分别为20.7%、18.5%,EPS为0.38、0.45,对应PE为10.1倍、8.6倍,维持买入评级!风险提示;房地产政策风险、订单增速下行风险等